An improved diagnostic stratocumulus scheme based on estimated inversion strength and its performance in GAMIL2   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zhun Guo  TianJun Zhou 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,57(11):2637-2649

Based on satellite data and the estimated inversion strength (EIS) derived by Wood et al. (2006), a feasible and uncomplicated stratocumulus scheme is proposed, referred to as EIS scheme. It improves simulation of cloud radiative forcing (CRF) in the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG version 2 (GAMIL2.0) model. When compared with the original lower troposphere stability (LTS) scheme, the EIS scheme reproduces more reasonable climatology distributions of clouds and CRF. The parameterization partly corrects CRF underestimation at mid and high latitudes and overestimation in the convective region. Such improvements are achieved by neglecting the effect of free-tropospheric stratification changes that follow a cooler moist adiabat at middle and high latitude, thereby improving simulated cloudiness. The EIS scheme also improves simulation of the CRF interannual variability. The positive net CRF and negative stratiform anomaly in the East Asian and western North Pacific monsoon regions (EAWNPMR) are well simulated. The EIS scheme is more sensitive to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than the LTS. Therefore, under the effect of a warmer SSTA in the EAWNPMR, the EIS generates a stronger negative stratiform response, which reduces radiative heating in the low and mid troposphere, in turn producing strong subsidence and negative anomalies of both moisture and cloudiness. Consequent decreases in cloud reflection and shading effects ultimately improve simulation of incoming surface shortwave radiative fluxes and CRF. Because of the stronger subsidence, a stronger anomalous anticyclone over the Philippines Sea is simulated by the EIS run, which leads to a better positive precipitation anomaly in eastern China during ENSO winter.  相似文献   

Planning hydroelectric resources with recourse-based multistage interval-stochastic programming     

B. Luo  D. C. Zhou 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(1):65-73

Optimization models play an important role in long-term hydroelectric resources planning. The effectiveness of an optimization model, however, depends on its capability of dealing with uncertainties. This study presents a multistage interval-stochastic programming model for long-term hydropower planning, in which uncertainties are reflected as randomness and intervals. The model is developed based on interval programming technique and recourse-based multistage stochastic programming and using the expected value of long-term hydroelectric profit as the objective function. A solution method of the developed model is also presented, which is based on a decomposition method by partitioning the multistage interval-stochastic program into two-stage stochastic programming sub-problems in each scenario-tree node. A hypothetical case study is used to demonstrate the developed model and its solution method. Modeling results demonstrates the computationally effectiveness of the solution method and reveal the applicability of the developed model for long term planning of hydroelectric resources.  相似文献   

Spatial rainfall model using a pattern classifier for estimating missing daily rainfall data     

Tae-Woong Kim  Hosung Ahn 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(3):367-376

Missing data in daily rainfall records are very common in water engineering practice. However, they must be replaced by proper estimates to be reliably used in hydrologic models. Presented herein is an effort to develop a new spatial daily rainfall model that is specifically intended to fill in gaps in a daily rainfall dataset. The proposed model is different from a convectional daily rainfall generation scheme in that it takes advantage of concurrent measurements at the nearby sites to increase the accuracy of estimation. The model is based on a two-step approach to handle the occurrence and the amount of daily rainfalls separately. This study tested four neural network classifiers for a rainfall occurrence processor, and two regression techniques for a rainfall amount processor. The test results revealed that a probabilistic neural network approach is preferred for determining the occurrence of daily rainfalls, and a stepwise regression with a log-transformation is recommended for estimating daily rainfall amounts.  相似文献   

佛开高速九江大桥模态测试与分析     

王立新  杜鹏  李小华 《华南地震》2009,29(3):9-16

对主跨为160m的预应力砼变截面连续梁桥佛开高速九江大桥进行了理论与实验模态分析．首先介绍了环境激励条件下现场模态测试布置及过程,利用随机子空间法（SSI）进行了桥梁模态参数识别．建立了桥梁有限元模型．并对理论和实验模态分析结果进行了比较和讨论。实验与有限元计算结果在竖向模态频率及振型上总体吻合较好。测试结果可以为有限元模型修正提供依据：模态测试与有限元分析相结合．可以为桥梁长期健康监测和损伤评估提供较可靠的基准模型。  相似文献   

Interaction of a river plume with coastal upwelling in the northeastern South China Sea   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Jianping Gan  Li Li  Dongxiao Wang  Xiaogang Guo 《Continental Shelf Research》2009

Observational and modeling studies were conducted to investigate the Pearl River plume and its interaction with the southwesterly driven upwelling circulation in the northern South China Sea during the summer. After exiting the Pearl River Estuary, the discharged freshwater generates a nearly stationary bulge of freshwater near the entrance of the estuary. Forced by the wind-driven coastal upwelling current, the freshwater in the outer part of the bulge flows downstream at the speed of the current and forms a widening and deepening buoyant plume over the shelf. The plume axis gradually shifts offshore of the current maximum as a result of currents induced by the contrasting density at the nose of plume and by the intensified Ekman drift in the plume. In this plume–current system, the fraction of the discharged freshwater volume accumulated in the bulge reaches a steady state and the volume of newly discharged freshwater is transported downstream by the upwelling current. Enhancement of stratification by the plume thins the surface frictional layer and enhances the cross-shelf circulation in the upper water column such that the surface Ekman current and compensating flow beneath the plume are amplified while the shoaling of the deeper dense water in the upwelling region changes minimally. The pressure gradient generated between the buoyant plume and ambient seawater accelerates the wind-driven current along the inshore edge of the plume but retards it along the offshore edge. Along the plume, downward momentum advection is strong near the highly nonlinear source region and a weaker upward momentum advection occurs in the far field over the shelf. Typically, the plume is shaped by the current over the shelf while the current itself is adjusting to a new dynamic balance invoked by the plume-induced changes of vertical viscosity and the horizontal pressure gradient. The spatial variation of this new balance leads to a coherent change in the cross-isobath transport in the upper water column during upwelling.  相似文献   

Response of the Changjiang diluted water around Jeju Island to external forcings: A modeling study of 2002 and 2006     

Jae-Hong Moon  Ig-Chan Pang  Jong-Hwan Yoon 《Continental Shelf Research》2009

The Changjiang diluted water (CDW) around Jeju Island between 2002 and 2006 in response to external forcings, such as wind, tidal forcing and low river discharge, is studied using a three-dimensional model. The model results suggest that wind largely determines spatial differences of CDW and the freshwater export toward Jeju Island between two years. In 2006, when northwestward wind blows during mid June to mid August, the wind-induced Ekman flow causes a broad northeastward extension of CDW and carries a significant amount of freshwater northeastward Jeju Island in August. On the other hand, in 2002 northward wind during mid July to early August drives the CDW to the southwest of Jeju Island, and thereafter the CDW is mainly advected northeastward along the Cheju Current during mid August when the wind becomes weak. Therefore, the amount of freshwater around Jeju Island increases in September, not in August. The response to tidal forcing shows that tide-induced vertical mixing tends to enhance a meander of CDW around Changjiang Bank and shift the CDW flowing into the Yellow Sea southeastward toward Jeju Island. As a result, the amount of freshwater toward Jeju Island becomes larger than that in no-tides case. The summer low river discharge as a flood control scenario has little influence on the spatial behavior of CDW around Jeju Island although the discharge contributes to the amount of freshwater around Jeju Island.  相似文献   

A new multiscale scheme for computing statistical moments in single phase flow in heterogeneous porous media     

Marcio R. Borges  Márcio A. Murad  Felipe Pereira  Frederico Furtado 《Advances in water resources》2009

In this work we develop a new multiscale procedure to compute numerically the statistical moments of the stochastic variables which govern single phase flow in heterogeneous porous media. The technique explores the properties of the log-normally distributed hydraulic conductivity, characterized by power-law or exponential covariances, which shows invariance in its statistical structure upon a simultaneous change of the scale of observation and strength of heterogeneity. We construct a family of equivalent stochastic hydrodynamic variables satisfying the same flow equations at different scales and strengths of heterogeneity or correlation lengths. Within the new procedure the governing equations are solved in a scaled geology and the numerical results are mapped onto the original medium at coarser scales by a straightforward rescaling. The new procedure is implemented numerically within the Monte Carlo algorithm and also in conjunction with the discretization of the low-order effective equations derived from perturbation analysis. Numerical results obtained by the finite element method show the accuracy of the new procedure to approximated the two first moments of the pressure and velocity along with its potential in reducing drastically the computational cost involved in the numerical modeling of both power-law and exponential covariance functions.  相似文献   

Stochastic analysis of bounded unsaturated flow in heterogeneous aquifers: Spectral/perturbation approach     

Ching-Min Chang  Hund-Der Yeh 《Advances in water resources》2009

This paper describes a stochastic analysis of steady state flow in a bounded, partially saturated heterogeneous porous medium subject to distributed infiltration. The presence of boundary conditions leads to non-uniformity in the mean unsaturated flow, which in turn causes non-stationarity in the statistics of velocity fields. Motivated by this, our aim is to investigate the impact of boundary conditions on the behavior of field-scale unsaturated flow. Within the framework of spectral theory based on Fourier–Stieltjes representations for the perturbed quantities, the general expressions for the pressure head variance, variance of log unsaturated hydraulic conductivity and variance of the specific discharge are presented in the wave number domain. Closed-form expressions are developed for the simplified case of statistical isotropy of the log hydraulic conductivity field with a constant soil pore-size distribution parameter. These expressions allow us to investigate the impact of the boundary conditions, namely the vertical infiltration from the soil surface and a prescribed pressure head at a certain depth below the soil surface. It is found that the boundary conditions are critical in predicting uncertainty in bounded unsaturated flow. Our analytical expression for the pressure head variance in a one-dimensional, heterogeneous flow domain, developed using a nonstationary spectral representation approach [Li S-G, McLaughlin D. A nonstationary spectral method for solving stochastic groundwater problems: unconditional analysis. Water Resour Res 1991;27(7):1589–605; Li S-G, McLaughlin D. Using the nonstationary spectral method to analyze flow through heterogeneous trending media. Water Resour Res 1995; 31(3):541–51], is precisely equivalent to the published result of Lu et al. [Lu Z, Zhang D. Analytical solutions to steady state unsaturated flow in layered, randomly heterogeneous soils via Kirchhoff transformation. Adv Water Resour 2004;27:775–84].  相似文献   

Paleolimnological records of recent glacier recession in the Rwenzori Mountains,Uganda-D. R. Congo     

J. Russell  H. Eggermont  R. Taylor  D. Verschuren 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2009,41(2):253-271

The status of tropical glaciers is enormously important to our understanding of past, present, and future climate change, yet lack of continuous quantitative records of alpine glacier extent on the highest mountains of tropical East Africa prior to the 20th century has left the timing and drivers of recent glacier recession in the region equivocal. Here we investigate recent changes (the last 150–700 years) in lacustrine sedimentation, glacier extent, and biogeochemical processes in the Rwenzori Mountains (Uganda- Democratic Republic of Congo) by comparing sedimentological (organic and siliciclastic component determined by loss-on-ignition; LOI) and organic geochemical profiles (carbon and nitrogen abundance, ratio, and isotopic composition of sedimentary organic matter) from lakes occupying presently glaciated catchments against similar profiles from lakes located in catchments lacking glaciers. The siliciclastic content of sediments in the ‘glacial lakes’ significantly decreases towards the present, whereas ‘non-glacial lakes’ generally show weak trends in their siliciclastic content over time, demonstrating that changes in the siliciclastic content of glacial lake sediments primarily record fluctuations in glacier extent. Radiometric dating of our sediment cores indicates that prior to their late 19th-century recession Rwenzori glaciers stood at expanded ‘Little Ice Age’ positions for several centuries under a regionally dry climate regime, and that recession was underway by 1870 AD, during a regionally wet episode. These findings suggest that the influence of late 19th century reductions in precipitation in triggering Rwenzori glacier recession is weaker than previously thought. Our organic geochemical data indicate that glacier retreat has significantly affected carbon cycling in Afroalpine lakes, but trends in aquatic ecosystem functioning are variable among lakes and require more detailed analysis.  相似文献   

The effect of transient eddy on interannual meridional displacement of summer East Asian subtropical jet   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

向洋  杨修群 《大气科学进展》2012,29(3):484-492

Using ERA-40 reanalysis daily data for the period 1958-2002,this study investigated the effect of transient eddy(TE) on the interannual meridional displacement of summer East Asian subtropical jet(EASJ) by conducting a detailed dynamical diagnosis.The summer EASJ axis features a significant interannual coherent meridional displacement.Associated with such a meridional displacement,the TE vorticity forcing anomalies are characterized by a meridional dipole pattern asymmetric about the climatological EASJ axis.The TE vorticity forcing anomalies yield barotropic zonal wind tendencies with a phase meridionally leading the zonal wind anomalies,suggesting that they act to reinforce further meridional displacement of the EASJ and favor a positive feedback in the TE and time-mean flow interaction.However,The TE thermal forcing anomalies induce baroclinic zonal wind tendencies that reduce the vertical shear of zonal wind and atmospheric baroclinicity and eventually suppress the TE activity,favoring a negative feedback in the TE and time-mean flow interaction.Although the two types of TE forcing tend to have opposite feedback roles,the TE vorticity forcing appears to be dominant in the TE effect on the time-mean flow.  相似文献